Classified intelligence documents leaked from within the Pentagon estimate that both sides in the Ukraine-Russia war have lost a significant number of combat aircraft.
The documents – mostly intelligence briefings containing updates and analysis related to the more than year-old conflict –were revealed on social media, allegedly by a low-ranking cyber-security specialist in the Massachusetts Air National Guard.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested Airman First Class Jack Teixeira on 14 April,part of its investigation intounauthorised removal, retention and transmission of classified national defence information, the US justice department says.
The documents purportedly provide new insight into the air war over Ukraine, including heavy casualties and a near-deadly incident involving a Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter and a UK Royal Air Force Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint surveillance jet.
Buried in the dozens of documents covering troop strength and battlefield movements are estimates of aircraft losses for both sides.
Under the category “Total Assessed Losses”, one document estimates Russia has lost 72 fixed-wing and 82 rotary-wing aircraft.Ukraine may have fared slightly better, with the US document estimating it has suffered 60 fixed-wing and 32 rotary aircraft destroyed.
The fixed-wing category covers fighters and bombers.
Source: Crown Copyright
At the start of the war, the Ukrainian air force had 98 combat fighters, 14 fighters used for training – including Sukhoi Su-27s – and a fleet of Aero Vodochody L-39 Albatross jets dedicated as trainers
However, relative to total fleet size, Ukraine’s losses are estimated to be more significant.
Cirium data shows that at the beginning of 2022, before the war started,Ukraine had 112 fighters and 112 combat helicopters. That figure excludes the Ukrainian air force’s Aero Vodochody L-39 Albatross jet trainers, but does include eight RAC MiG-29s and six Su-27s allocated to training duty.
If the casualty estimates are correct, Ukraine has lost 53% of its fighters and 28% of its combat helicopters.
By contrast, the Russian-loss estimates represent a small fraction of its aviation assets.
Cirium data shows Moscow started the war with a massive numerical advantage, counting 1,511 fighters and bombers, plus 1,534 combat helicopters across its combined armed forces. The loss figures from the recent Pentagon leak would represent just more than 4% of Russia’s combat fixed-wing aircraft and only 5% of the country’s combat helicopters.
The Pentagon has not verified any of the information contained in the leaked documents, describing them as still classified.
“Just because classified information may be posted online or elsewhere does not mean it has been declassified by a classification authority,” Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder said on 13 April. “We’re just not going to discuss or confirm classified information due to the potential impact on national security.”
Further confusing the situation, altered versions of the documents emerged after the material became widely publicised in early April. The changes included reduced estimates of Russian casualties, painting a rosier picture for Moscow and fuelling speculation that the changes were the handiwork of Russian agents or proxies.
“We know that some of them have been doctored,” US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on 10 April.
“I won’t speak to the validity of all the documents – the ones that don’t immediately appear to be doctored,” he adds. “We’re still working through the validity of all the documents that we know are out there.”
In the case of aircraft losses, a clearly altered version of the original document shows the same casualty figures for Ukraine, while fighter and helicopter losses for Russia have been reduced by roughly 90%.
Source: Andrei Shmatko/Wikimedia Commons
After suffering heavy losses in the early days of the war, Russia has largely held back its manned fighters, including the low-observable Su-57
While neither Washington, Kyiv nor Moscow has officially acknowledged the aircraft figures, prior statements from a high-ranking US Air Force official suggeststhe loss estimates are at least plausible.
General James Hecker, commander of US air forces in Europe and head of NATO’s Allied Air Command, said last September that Ukraine had, at that time, destroyed at least 55 Russian fighter aircraft.
Hecker, who was speaking at the 2022 Air Space Cyber conference near Washington DC, noted all of those losses resulted from Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles, with most occurring in the early days of the war.
Dates on the recently leaked documents indicate at least some were prepared in late February 2023, some five months after Hecker made his remarks.
The loss estimates could explain why the Russian air force, after the start of the war, has largely held back its manned fighters from flying over Ukraine. That includes the country’s advancedSu-57stealth jets.
Recent appeals by the government in Kyiv also support the notion that Ukraine has suffered significant fighter losses. Top officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky and defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, have repeatedly called on the USA and other NATO members to provide Ukraine with fresh fighter aircraft.
“In modern warfare, air superiority is crucial,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on 12 April during a visit to Washington DC.
Speaking alongside US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, Shmyhal again urged the USA and Europe to provide his country with fighters to bolster the Ukrainian air force.
“Ukraine is initiating the building of a new so-called fighter-jet coalition,” says Shmyhal. “We are inviting the United States to become its most important participant…America can once again demonstrate its leadership by providing Ukraine with [Boeing] F-15 or [Lockheed Martin] F-16 aircraft.
Source: Efrem Lukatsky/AP/Shutterstock
Russia is estimated to have lost some 82 combat helicopters, with several documented downings of Kamov Ka-52 Alligator compound coaxial attack rotorcraft
Western leaders have downplayed the value of expensive and difficult-to-maintain platforms like F-16s, instead preferring to ship Ukraine air defence systems like Raytheon’s Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System.
However, several of Ukraine’s Eastern European neighbours feel different. Slovakia on 23 March transferred 13 of its Soviet-bloc MiG-29 multi-role fighters to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, NATO member Poland is moving to dramatically expand its defence expenditure, with fighter aircraft being the top priority. Warsaw’s consul general in New York City recently told FlightGlobal that Poland will increase its military budget to the equivalent of 4% of its national gross domestic product by the end of 2023.
The country is already on contract to purchase 32 Lockheed F-35As and separately plans to acquire 48 Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50 light fighters.
Poland says it still plans to transfer some portion of its MiG-29 fleet to Ukraine “very soon”, but not before a suitable replacement has been identified. Separately, Washingtonplans to provide Slovakia with Bell AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters in return for its fighter donation to Kyiv.
It remains unclear how providing Ukraine with more fighters might affect the war, but the current balance of forces has locked the two sides in a bloody stalemate.
The recently leaked documents indicate Pentagon analysts now view a stalemate as continuing. Ukrainian and American officials have said publicly that Kyiv is planning an offensive aimed at breaking that stalemate sometime in the coming weeks.
